This study assesses changing flexibility requirements in the South African power system resulting from increased levels of variable renewable generation (solar PV and wind), with a time horizon until 2030. The expansion (and decommissioning) of both renewable and conventional power plants is modelled from now until 2030 according to the base case of the draft Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), as published in December 2016.

Authors: Markus Pöller, Marko Obert

The aim of the studies presented in this report is to quantify the economic impact of different strategies for the deployment utility scale PV farms in South Africa. These are referred to as ‘allocation strategies’.

Three different allocation strategy scenarios for a total of 8,4GW of utility scale PV farms in South Africa have been considered. These are summarized as follows:

• Scenario A: “As planned” This scenario is according to the existing applications for PV farms where there is a total of, 6,4GW of PV in the ‘Solar Corridor’ (see Figure 2), and 2GW distributed elsewhere in the country.
• Scenario B: “Close to load centers” Here, only 2,6GW of PV is considered in the Solar Corridor, the remaining 5,8GW is distributed across the country.
• Scenario C: “According to REDZs [1]” For this scenario, PV farms have been allocated in the Renewable Energy Development Zones (REDS), as identified by CSIR and DEA within the SEA project [1]. In this scenario, 2,8 GW is considered in the Solar Corridor, and 5,6GW is distributed predominantly in the REDZs.

Author: Moeller and Poeller